The USDCAD pair is currently trading in a consolidation range, with price action caught between key technical levels that are shaping near-term sentiment. The 100-hour moving average (currently near 1.3845) is acting as an immediate support zone. This level has held firm on multiple tests on Thursday, and a break below it could shift the bias more definitively to the downside, opening the door for further selling momentum.
On the flip side, the swing area around 1.39054 represents a significant ceiling. This level has capped upside attempts, with at least eight recent tests (as support or resistance), with more recent highs stalling rally’s at that level (see red numbered circles six through eight). A successful break and close above this ceiling would increase bullish bias and likely attract additional buying interest. There is a swing area between 1.39458 and 1.39785 along with the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart at 1.3972.
The 200-hour moving average sits between these two extremes, adding further weight to the consolidation narrative. Price has been oscillating around this mid-level, suggesting indecision and the need for a clear breakout to define direction.
For now, traders are watching for a breakout from this tightening technical structure, with the 100-hour and 200-hour MAs acting as support, and the swing area at 1.39054 acting as resistance
