The steady fix, combined with stronger USD-positive damping, is seen as establishing a near-term floor around Thursday’s trough near 6.8310.
The immediate market response saw USD/CNH rebound, with traders trimming crowded yuan-long bets. Analysts expect USD/CNY to rise moderately before stabilising in a 6.9000–6.9500 range, reflecting a policy stance aimed at smoothing gains rather than reversing direction outright.
Chart signals also point to fading downside momentum in USD/CNY. A long-tailed doji formation suggested exhaustion in the recent decline, while a break above the 6.8868 Bollinger channel ceiling would reinforce the case for a corrective bounce toward the 21-day moving average near 6.9235 and potentially toward the upper channel around 6.9560.
Over the past decade, the PBOC has repeatedly adjusted the FX risk reserve ratio to manage two-way currency pressures. The latest move fits that pattern: not an attempt to weaken the yuan materially, but a calibrated step to curb excessive strength and damp volatility
