USD/CAD momentarily touched the highest level since January 26 today before fading back to unchanged on the day. The pair has been climbing for the past two weeks as the US dollar recovers.
This is an interesting level for the pair as it tests resistance from the Feb 5 high of 1.3724.
Some things to consider:
- Oil prices have rebounded to $66 but much of that is an Iran war premium that’s highly variable depending on what comes next in that saga
- The US dollar has also attracted a war safety premium, though the size of it is tough to pin down and likely accounts for less than 50 pips in USD/CAD.
- Equity market have grown fragile and that’s a potential tailwind for the US dollar
- Canadian stock markets continue to hit records, fuelled by oil, gold and banks
- USMCA trade negotiations loom
On the latter note there are some developments as a report says South Bow Corp (a spinoff from TC Energy) is considering reviving part of the Keystone XL pipeline from Montana to Wyoming.
“South Bow is now evaluating an expansion that would leverage existing
infrastructure and permitted corridors in Canada to connect with
downstream pipelines in the US,” the report says.
Trump has long been a proponent for the pipeline and also likes projects with large dollar amounts attached. That could be leveraged to close an extension of the USMCA trade deal, or at least the US-Canada portion. Canadian regulators today also certified the Gulf Stream jets that Trump previously lamented.
As a result of the Supreme Court decision, Canadian tariffs fell — though much of trade is still exempted under USMCA. For Canada, the main irritants are steel, lumber and aluminum sectoral tariffs. In the autumn, it looked like a deal was close but talks broke down.
If a deal can be struck — and I think it will be — then there will be some investment clarity for Canada at time when commodities are in fashion again
