Retail Sales data for the month of October 2025
- Prior month retail sales (September) 0.2% revised to 0.1%
- Retail sales for the month of October 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate.
- Retail sales ex autos 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3% revised lower to 0.1%
- Retail sales ex autos and gas 0.5% vs 0.0% last month (revised from 0.1%).
- Control group (feeds into US GDP) 0.8% vs 0.4% estimate. Last month -0.1%
US retail sales: What the report tells traders about the consumer and growth
Why retail sales matter
When on schedule (today’s data is from October) US retail sales offer one of the clearest, most timely reads on consumer demand, which drives roughly two-thirds of overall US economic activity. Because the data are released monthly and feed directly into GDP calculations, markets often use the report to reassess growth momentum, Fed policy expectations, and near-term direction for yields, equities, and the US dollar.
Understanding the key components
The headline retail sales figure measures overall spending but can be volatile due to autos and gasoline. For that reason, traders focus more closely on retail sales ex-autos, which provide a cleaner signal of underlying demand, and the control group (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services), which feeds directly into GDP’s personal consumption component. A strong control group typically signals solid real economic growth, while weakness can quickly raise recession or slowdown concerns.
What the category breakdown reveals
The internal composition of the report is often as important as the headline. Strength in discretionary categories such as online sales, restaurants, and general merchandise suggests confident consumers and healthy labor income.
By contrast, weakness across multiple categories or reliance on essentials can indicate consumers are becoming more cautious, even if the headline number looks stable.
How traders use the data
For markets, strong retail sales tend to support higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD, particularly if paired with signs of rising prices or wages. Soft or slowing sales usually weigh on yields and the dollar, reinforcing expectations for Fed easing
