US retail sales for January. -0.9% versus -0.1% est. Control group -0.8% versus 0.3% est.

February 14, 2025 at 01:30PM

Prior month retail sales +0.4%

Retail Sales -0.9% vs -0.1% estimate. Last month revised to +0.7% from 0.4%

Ex Autos MoM -0.4% vs 0.3% estimate. The prior month was 0.4% revised to 0.7%

Ex gas/auto -0.5% vs 0.5% last month (revised from +0.3%).

Control group -0.8% vs 0.3% estimate. Last month +0.7% revised higher 20.8%

Retail Sales YoY 4.2% vs 3.92% last month

The data was weaker across the board in the advanced retail sales report and should lead to a decline in GDP estimates for Q1.

Some details by category:

Motor vehicle & parts dealers: -2.8

Auto & other motor vehicle dealers: -3.0

Furniture & home furnishings stores: -1.7

Electronics & appliance stores: -0.7

Building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers: -1.3

Food & beverage stores: -0.1

Grocery stores: 0.2

Health & personal care stores: -0.3

Gasoline stations: 0.9

Clothing & clothing accessories stores: -1.2

Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores: -4.6

General merchandise stores: 0.5

Department stores: 0.8

Miscellaneous store retailers: 0.2

Nonstore retailers: -1.9

Food services & drinking places: 0.9

In the context of retail sales data, the control group refers to a subset of retail sales categories used to calculate GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as it excludes components that can introduce volatility or are not directly tied to consumer spending trends.

Key Characteristics of the Control Group in Retail Sales:

Excludes certain categories: Items like autos, gasoline, and building materials are excluded because they are either highly volatile or not considered part of core retail activity.

Focus on core consumer spending: It typically includes categories like food and beverage stores, clothing, general merchandise, and electronics.

Purpose: Provides a more stable and reliable measure of underlying consumer demand and is closely watched as an input for economic growth analysis.

The control group is used by economists and policymakers to understand broader trends in consumer spending without the noise of volatile components.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.