- Prior was 38
- Single family vs 42 prior
- Prospective buyers vs 25 prior
- Sales expectations vs 49 prior
The US housing industry is in a deep recession and rising rates following the Iran war aren’t going to help.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), published monthly by the National Association of Home Builders, is one of the most widely followed gauges of sentiment in the U.S. residential construction industry. Derived from a survey that NAHB has conducted for more than 40 years, the index polls roughly 900 home builders nationwide, asking them to rate current single-family home sales as good, fair, or poor, to assess expected sales over the next six months, and to evaluate the traffic of prospective buyers. Scores from these three components are combined into a seasonally adjusted composite index, where 50 is the dividing line — readings above 50 indicate that more builders view conditions favorably, while readings below signal a negative outlook.
The HMI has remained stubbornly below 50 throughout 2025 and into 2026, reflecting persistent affordability headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, high construction costs, and stretched home prices relative to incomes. The index closed 2025 at 39 in December, then slid to 37 in January 2026 as all three subcomponents declined. February brought a further dip to 36, a five-month low, with future sales expectations falling to 44 — well below the breakeven threshold
