The Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 24, 2025) rose to 240,000, up from 227,000 the previous week, exceeding estimates of 230,000. This suggests a slight uptick in layoffs.
Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending May 17, 2025) also moved higher:to 1.919 million, up from 1.903 million, above estimates of 1.893 million, indicating more people are remaining on unemployment benefits.
The data points to a cooling labor market, with claims trending higher, potentially reflecting economic uncertainty tied to factors like tariffs and policy changes.
US GDP consumption also fell from 1.8% to 1.2%. The combination the data suggest that the Fed may have room to cut earlier then expectations. US yields are now lower after trading higher earlier today.
- The 2-year is at 3.967%, down -2.5 basis points.
- The 10-year yield is trading at 4.457%, down -2.2 basis points.
- The 30-year yield is down two basis points at 4.958%
The EURUSD has surged about both the 200-hour and the 100 hour MAs at 1.13136 and 1.13387. The high price has just reached 1.13592. The swing ayes from May 21 at 1.1362 is a modest target. Above that, highs from May 2, May 6, and May 7, come in near 1.13803.
The USDJPY has moved below its 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 144.897. That is now close risk. The cluster of MAs below starting with the 200 hour MA at 143.95 and down the 100 hour MA at 143.785 are the next targets
