US May CPI 3.3% y/y versus 3.4% expected

June 12, 2024 at 01:30PM
Headline measures:

Prior y/y 3.4%

m/m +0.2% versus +0.3% expected

Prior m/m 0.3%

Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior

Core measures:

Core CPI m/m 0.2% versus +0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3%

Unrounded core 0.163% vs +0.290% prior

Core CPI y/y 3.4% versus 3.6% expected. Prior month was 3.6%

Supercore m/m -0.045% vs +0.422% prior

Supercore y/y +4.8% y/y

Shelter +0.4% versus +0.4% prior month

Shelter y/y +5.4% vs +5.5% prior

Real weekly earnings +0.4% vs -0.4% prior

Food +0.1% m/m vs +0.0% m/m prior

Food 2.1% y/y vs +2.2% y/y prior

Energy -0.2% m/m vs +1.1% m/m prior

Energy +3.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior

Rents +0.4% m/m vs +0.4% prior

Owner’s equivalent rent +0.4% vs +0.4% prior

Motor vehicle insurance -0.1% m/m (still up 20.9% y/y)

Full report (pdf)

Eyes were on core services ex housing and even core services ex housing and auto insurance as the market tries to sort out what’s forward-looking and what are lingering artifacts of the previous round of inflation. USD/JPY slipped to 157.20 just before the data.and has immediately plunged to 156.45 in broad US dollar selling.

The market is now fully pricing in two FOMC cuts this year including 80% in Sept.

Airfares were -3.6%, new cars -0.5%, apparel -0.4%,
and hotels -0.18% as key signs of disinflation.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US May CPI 3.3% y/y versus 3.4% expected