- Prior was +178K (revised to +185K)
- Two-month net revision ___
- February was -92K (revised to -133K). January was +126K (revised to +160K)
- Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 4.3%
- Unrounded unemployment ___% vs 4.256% prior
- Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.9% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 8.2% vs 8.0% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs +3.8% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expected
- Change in private payrolls +123K vs +75expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls -2K vs +5K expected
- Government payrolls -8K vs -8K in March
The US labor market enters April having staged a sharp but flattering rebound. March nonfarm payrolls rose by 178K, while January was revised up by 34K to +160K and February was revised down by 41K to -133K, leaving the two prior months a combined 7K lower than previously reported. Smoothing the volatility, payrolls have averaged just 68K per month over the last three months — only modestly above the breakeven pace the labor market now requires.
The composition is doing a lot of the work. Healthcare alone accounted for 76K of March’s gain, much of it strike-affected workers returning to payrolls, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% partly because the labor force participation rate slipped to 61.9% from 62.0%, meaning some of the improvement reflects people exiting the labor force rather than finding work.
Wages cooled meaningfully. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago — the slowest annual pace since May 2021
