November 05, 2024 at 05:53PM
We will get US 10-year auction results at the top of the hour. Today’s ISM services number highlights the upside risk for yields as it showed a strong economy (though with lower prices). The market is now leaning heavily towards a January pause from the FOMC.
On the run 10s are trading at 4.345% at the moment and BMO doesn’t think they will get any help from the auction:
The event risk created
by the election has kept investors largely sidelined for the last few weeks,
and even with 10-year rates back above 4.30% this morning, we struggle to
imagine a particularly aggressive bid given the proximity to such a defining
moment for global financial markets. The lackluster demand for Monday’s 3-year
supply is consistent with this observation – and because 10-year auctions tail
roughly three-quarters of the time when the preceding 3-year offering tails by
more than half a basis point, we’ve been left increasingly wary of the need for
a concession this afternoon. We’ll look for a tail at 1pm EST with uncertainty
running high at the current juncture.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
