Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave. Analysts warn a weaker OPEC will struggle to stabilise oil prices long term.
Summary:
- The UAE announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, citing longstanding frustration with production quotas that kept it well below its capacity of up to 4.8 million barrels a day
- Kazakhstan is identified as the next most likely candidate to leave, having repeatedly chafed under its quota of 1.6 million barrels a day, though its excess capacity is far smaller than the UAE’s
- Iraq is flagged as another potential departure risk, though Iraqi officials told Reuters on Tuesday the country has no plans to leave
- Columbia University’s Antoine Halff described the UAE as the most likely candidate to exit for quite some time, and noted Kazakhstan might actually gain influence within OPEC now that the UAE has gone
- CIBC’s Rebecca Babin compared OPEC to the Federal Reserve of the oil market, arguing that smaller producers benefit from the price stability the cartel provides
- Rystad Energy warned that near-term price effects of the UAE’s departure may be muted given Hormuz disruption, but that a structurally weaker OPEC will struggle to calibrate supply and stabilise prices over time
- Iran’s attacks on fellow members’ energy infrastructure were described as an unprecedented challenge for the organisation, which has survived wars between members before
The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC has shaken the oil cartel, but energy experts say the more important question now is who might follow. While an imminent collapse of the organisation is not widely expected, Kazakhstan and potentially Iraq are being watched as the two members with the clearest reasons to walk away.
Of the two, Kazakhstan is considered the more credible near-term risk. The central Asian producer has long resisted its OPEC quota, repeatedly pushing production beyond agreed limits in a pattern that closely mirrors the frustrations that drove the UAE to the exit. The UAE was constrained to around 3.5 million barrels a day despite a production capacity of between 4.7 and 4.8 million barrels a day, a gap that made membership increasingly costly. Kazakhstan’s excess capacity is more modest, but the grievance is similar.
Iraq was also flagged as a potential departure risk, but Baghdad moved quickly to dismiss the speculation, with officials telling Reuters on Tuesday that the country has no plans to leave.
Antoine Halff of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy noted that with the UAE now gone, Kazakhstan’s influence within the bloc could actually increase, making membership more attractive rather than less. Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth compared OPEC to the Federal Reserve of the oil market, arguing that smaller producers value the price stability it provides even when quotas constrain output.
Rystad Energy cautioned that the near-term price impact of the UAE’s departure may be limited while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. The longer-term concern is structural
