The main question now is, will this end up being another TACO situation? Only time will tell.
We’ll have to see what other countries are planning to do in response to the increase in tariffs. The EU has said that they would want to talk more to try and secure some form of deal by 1 August. The same goes for Mexico, even if they had lambasted the latest threat by Trump as being “unfair”.
Trade headlines will remain paramount in assessing the broader market mood. But after the latest news with the EU, there shouldn’t be any surprises left until we get to see how negotiations are panning out over the next two weeks.
If he’s not dishing out tariffs, he’s busy celebrating and lifting trophies. 😐
In the days ahead though, the focus will turn back towards key US data to come.
The big one will be tomorrow, in the form of the US CPI report. A Fed rate cut later this month is all but ruled out for now, but September is the key meeting to eye. Fed funds futures are showing ~67% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for that. So, the inflation numbers will play a part in setting the tone for that – especially after some recent dovish tilts by Fed policymakers.
And then on Wednesday, we’ll have the US PPI report. And on Thursday, there will be the US retail sales and weekly initial jobless claims
