Over the past six trading days, USDCAD has followed a pattern of making new lows every other day—last Wednesday, last Friday, and again yesterday (Tuesday). If that pattern continues, it would suggest that today will not see a new low. Time will tell.
Interestingly, each of these new lows has been quickly reversed, indicating a negative bias but lacking strong downside momentum. Notably, the recent lows mark the weakest levels for USDCAD since October 2024, yet momentum has not been strong.
On the topside, each rebound following a low—Thursday and again on Monday—has managed to push the pair above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, even if only briefly. However, today’s rebound from yesterday’s low has so far stalled below the 100-hour moving average at 1.38095. The 200-hour moving average sits above at 1.38251.
For bullish momentum to build, the price will need to break back above both of those key moving averages, and stay above those moving averages.
Fundamentally, Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, met with former President Trump and described the discussions as productive. However, Carney firmly stated that “Canada is not for sale” and highlighted concerns regarding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) from Canada’s perspective. He also emphasized Canada’s intent to diversify its trade relationships beyond North America. In response to these developments, the Canadian dollar has weakened, putting upward pressure on USDCAD – of late
