January 23, 2025 at 02:49PM
The USDCHF moved higher in the European/early US session and in the process tested the falling 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 0.90869). That was the 2nd test of the MA this week. On Tuesday, the price also moved to that moving average, and found willing sellers.
The hold twice increases that levels importance technically. Moving above is needed to shift the bias at least in the short term, more to the upside with the 200 hour MA at 0.91105 as the next target.
Until then, the sellers are more in control with work to do.
Downside targets that would increase the bearish bias would be near 0.9050 and then the 38.2% and swing level at 0.90209 (see green numbered circles). Getting below the 38.2% of the move up from the December low is key if the sellers are to show they want to take the price lower after the trend-run higher in December.
Against the downside getting out of control, are central bank policies. The SNB inflation is low and below target that keeps them in the dovish camp, while the Fed is more neutral now after a more dovish bias.
Nevertheles, the holding against the 100-hour MA keeps the seller (buyers of the CHF) in control.
USDCHF Summary:
Tested falling 100-hour MA at 0.90869
Second successful test of the MA this week
Needs to move above MA to shift bias to upside
Downside targets at 0.9050 and 0.90209 (38.2% and swing level)
Central bank policies may influence price movement with a bullish bias.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
