The USD moved higher after the better-than-expected retail sales but has given up some of those gains subsequently. The focus is now on the FOMC rate decision with the expectation still for a 25 basis point cut. Of interest will be the impact of Miran on the board, and if he, Bowman and Waller will petition for a 50 basis point cut.
In the video above, I take a look at 3 of the major currencies versus the US dollar – the EURUSD (updated), the USDCHF and the USDCAD.
The EURUSD moved lower earlier in the session, testing the high of a key support target at 1.1788. That level once again attracted dip buyers, and the pair has since rebounded back above the 1.1800 handle. The price action keeps the upside bias intact, with traders now eyeing the July 1 high at 1.18289. A break above that would be significant technically, as it also marks the highest level for the pair going back to September 2021, opening the door for further momentum if buyers can sustain control.
Meanwhile, the USDCHF has been the bigger mover on the day, sliding by -0.53%. Like the euro, the pair initially tried to extend higher after the data, but momentum quickly faded at resistance defined by the top of a swing area between 0.7910 and 0.79209. Sellers leaned against that ceiling, and the rejection has pushed the pair back below the zone. The focus now shifts to 0.7900, the low from July 3. A move below there would put pressure on the 2025 low at 0.7871, which also doubles as the lowest level for the pair since 2011 — a major downside marker on the longer-term chart.
The USDCAD is trading lower after failing on the rebound after retail sales against its 100-day moving average at 1.37626. That level was broken earlier today leaving sellers firmly in control. The current price sits near 1.3750, with a nearby swing area between 1.3743 and 1.3759 acting as the next key hurdle to get below
