The USD is lower versus the three major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP.. This video takes a look at the technicals that traders should be following to determine the bias, the risk, and targets for these three currency pairs.
EURUSD:
The EURUSD moved lower yesterday but held support at its rising 100-hour moving average, which starts today’s US session at a higher hurdle of 1.1311. Holding above this key MA level keeps the bias in favor of the buyers. A move below would tilt the bias in the short-term more to the downside, with the next key target being the support area between 1.1271 and 1.1275. Just below that, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from last week’s low comes in at 1.12495—a critical level to watch if the downside momentum builds.
USDJPY:
The USDJPY tested the low from last Friday at 142.07 today, and found buyers at that level, rebounding to the upside. The pair now trades between that double bottom at 142.07 and the 100-hour moving average above at 143.361. A break below 142.07 would open the door toward the next key support at the swing level near 141.67. A move above would tilt the bias marginally to the upside with work to do.
GBPUSD:
The GBPUSD broke above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3245, climbing to a new high at 1.3290. A break above that level would have traders eyeing the next upside target at 1.33124, followed by the 2024 high at 1.34323. On the downside, sellers would need to push the pair back below 1.3245 and 1.3221, with additional support at 1.32067—the high from two weeks ago, which served as a base before the latest move higher.
Today’s technical levels will be influenced by the upcoming U.S. retail sales report for March, where the headline figure is expected to rise by 1.3%, and ex-auto sales are forecast to increase by 0.3%. The retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is projected to rise by 0.6%.
Also on the economic calendar is industrial production and capacity utilization, both due at 9:15 AM ET. Expectations are for industrial production to dip by -0.2%, while capacity utilization is seen edging down to 78.0% from 78.2%. Manufacturing output is expected to rise by 0.3%, a slowdown from last month’s 0.9% gain.
At 9:45 AM ET, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision. The outcome is uncertain, with markets split on whether the central bank will cut rates or hold steady. Before the recent wave of tariffs, the BoC appeared poised to slow its easing cycle. However, the expected drag on growth from those tariffs has reintroduced doubt into the market.
Despite the uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has strengthened, with USDCAD falling to a low of 1.38278 on Monday—its weakest level since November 2024. The pair has since rebounded and now trades near the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.39149. That level will act as the near-term barometer: staying below keeps sellers in control. A move above could shift bias higher, with the 200-day moving average near the psychological 1.4000 level serving as a key resistance target
