IN the video above, I take a look at a technical driving the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. After the USD rose North American session erasing earlier declines and closing little changed, the Iraqis lower today with a decline of -0.37% versus the GBP and -0.28% versus the EUR. Versus the JPY, the greenback is lower by -0.12%.
The US dollar is lower versus the Canadian dollar by -0.19%.I also take a look at its technicals ahead of the dual job report releases at the bottom of the hour.
Yields in the US are modestly lower (less than 1%) .
US stocks in premarket trading are mixed with the Dow higher and the Nasdaq under pressure. The futures are implying:
- Dow +100 points
- S&P index -29.06 point
- NASDAQ index -296 points
Crude oil prices are modestly lower down $0.14 on the day at $92.88. Gold is down by $6.80 or -0.14% and silver is down by $-1.08 or -1.3%.
The price of bitcoin is lower reaching a new cycle low of $61,073. The next target would be the low price from February 6 that $59,930. The current price is trading off the lows at $61,928.
At 8:30 AM ET, both the United States and Canada will release their May employment reports, making it one of the most important economic events of the week for North American markets. Traders will be closely watching the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for clues on the pace of hiring, wage growth, and labor market strength, while Canada’s employment data will provide insight into whether the labor market is stabilizing after last month’s job losses. The results are likely to influence expectations for future Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy decisions and could trigger volatility in currencies, bonds, and equity markets.
United States (May Employment Report Expectations)
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): +85K vs. +115K prior
- Private Payrolls: +85K vs. +123K prior
- Manufacturing Payrolls: +2K vs. -2K prior
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% vs. 4.3% prior
- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): +0.3% vs. +0.2% prior
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): +3.4% vs. +3.6% prior
- Average Workweek: 34.3 hours vs. 34.3 prior
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%
- U6 Underemployment Rate: 8.2%
Canada (May Employment Report Expectations)
- Employment Change: +10.0K vs. -17.7K prior
- Unemployment Rate: 6.9% vs. 6.9% prior
- Participation Rate: 65.1% vs. 65.0% prior
- Average Hourly Wages (Permanent Employees YoY): 4.8%
- Full-Time Employment Change: Prior -46.7K
- Part-Time Employment Change: Prior +29.0K
What Markets Will Be Watching
- Whether U.S. job growth slows further toward the 100K level.
- Whether U.S. wage growth remains firm despite softer hiring. With inflation higher, having wages fall behind takes more money from consumers but also raises the cost of production (all things equal) for corporation
- Whether Canada’s labor market rebounds from April’s decline.
- Any surprises that could alter expectations for Fed or Bank of Canada interest-rate policy.
Overnight in Lebanon / Hezbollah Front
Israel’s deadly strikes are continuing across Lebanon, killing at least six people today, despite the announcement of a new US-brokered ceasefire agreed between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington. Israel is also ordering the forced displacement of at least nine towns and villages in southern Lebanon
An Israeli soldier was killed by a Hezbollah anti-tank missile in southern Lebanon on Thursday, on the first day of the latest ceasefire attempt. Hezbollah, which is not party to the deal, has rejected the pact.
US–Iran Diplomacy
President Trump warned he would quickly resume military action if US troops are killed, as an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader accused him of pressuring Tehran for concessions while keeping US commitments unclear. Trump said Iran negotiations could show progress “over the weekend,” even as he warned the US could return to war if talks fail. Iran has informed Pakistan of acceptance of it uranium to a 3rd party country that agrees to it. , but US would not release request to release the Iranian’s frozen funds. There are also other skirmishes and warning shots. Iran Navy (I thought it was destroyed so take with a grain of salt), fired warning shots toward an aggressive American destroyer
