The USD is higher vs most of the major currencies to start the US session, the new week, and the new month. The move continues the trend started last week after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but said December was not on a preset course to cut rates. Versus the 3 major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP – the greenback is higher but only marginally. The EUR is higher by 0.14%, the JPY is higher by 0.09% and the GBP is higher by 0.14%.
Fed speak last week post the FOMC decision was mostly less dovish with most saying they are not on a pre-set course for a cut in December. Newly appointed Fed Governor Miran was the exception at the meeting wanting to cut by 50 basis points. He spoke this morning and his comments were congruent with his vote. He said he approached his final meeting with the view that the Fed’s policy is currently too restrictive. He reiterates there is no need to maintain a restrictive stance for an extended period and believes the Fed could get to a neutral policy stance a bit faster. Miran argues that it’s a mistake to draw conclusions about monetary policy solely from financial conditions, as financial markets are driven by many factors. He points out that while some financial metrics may appear loose, other areas, such as housing conditions, remain tight. His overall policy philosophy is that it should be based on forecasts, warning that being overly data-dependent makes policy decisions backward-looking. While acknowledging he did not support a large 75 basis point cut, he was making the case that the economy is not dysfunctional at the moment, and he notes that alternative labor market data suggests an ebbing of demand.
Punchbowl reported today that the US Democratic and Republican Senators are currently engaged in discussions, focusing on finding an agreement on the FY26 spending bills, with the hope that a spending resolution could help resolve the current government shutdown. There was some optimism over the weekend, that a resolution may be found. However, a major sticking point remains, as there are no signs from Trump/Republicans indicating they are willing to compromise on extending the expiring premium Obamacare subsidies. That has been and remains a key card that the Republicans are not willing to give up. Meanwhile, politically the damage is started to be felt more and more.
Major US indices are higher with the
- Dow industrial average -25 points
- S&P up 19.20 points
- NASDAQ index up 156 points
Microsoft said they would ship Nvidia AI chips to use and UAE for the 1st time
