As the North American session begins, the US dollar is marginally higher with gains of less than 0.10% vs the EUR and the GBP and a gain of 0.20% vs the JPY. Although higher and well above the low semester after the stronger-than-expected PPI data and in the rally on the Trump announcement of a deal with Iran, the moves today have been up and down. That has taken the price back into a neutral area for the pair’s technically. There just wasn’t a clear breakout momentum. As a result the process returned back into the cluster of technical levels that have helped define bias of the last month or so of trading. So just as there is hope for a peace deal (ironically it is around the birthday of Pres. Trump in the MMA “extravaganza” that will take place on the White House grounds – why do anticipate some global holiday initiative if so goes down?). Nevertheless hoping for peace is by default.
In review:
Trump declared that a “great settlement” and been reached with Iran to end the three-month war, saying he expects a formal deal to be signed in the coming days (Trump’s birthday is on June 14). He also reassured Israel that any agreement will include the removal of Iran’s enriched nuclear material. The framework being discussed is a Memorandum of Understanding — not a full peace treaty — that would serve as the foundation for longer-term negotiations.
Having said that, even as the deal was being announced, US forces reportedly shot down two Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz early Friday after Iranian forces reportedly fired on a transiting vessel — a reminder of how volatile the situation remains even during active diplomacy.
As is always been the case, a successful deal requires freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the future of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program, reconstruction costs, and sanctions relief. Iran has insisted it retains the right to enrich uranium, while the US is demanding full removal of enriched material.
The deal is close but not done. Markets today will be watching closely Friday for any formal signing announcement — a confirmed MOU would likely send oil sharply lower and trigger a significant risk-on rally across equities.
In other news, SpaceX is set to make history with what is expected to be the largest IPO ever. The company is reportedly pricing shares at $135, raising roughly $75 billion, and targeting a valuation near $1.77 trillion. The stock is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Investor demand has been exceptionally strong, with the offering reportedly oversubscribed and significant participation from both institutional and retail investors.
For markets, the IPO could become a major liquidity event and a key test of investor appetite for high-growth, high-valuation companies. Index providers have already signaled that SpaceX could be added quickly to several major benchmarks, potentially creating significant passive fund demand shortly after the listing
