Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded.
The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if loan losses are finally starting to bite. If the consumer is cracking under the weight of higher rates, Jamie Dimon’s commentary will be the first place we see it.
Beyond the banks, we’re looking for a signal that the freight recession has found a floor and if chip demand has any red flags.
Here is what to watch:
Banks:
It’s big bank earnings week with: JPM, Wells Fargo, Citi, BofA
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Tuesday (JPM) & Wednesday (WFC, C, BAC)
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On the macro view, it’s about credit quality. I’m looking for signs that consumers are falling behind on payments.
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EPS Consensus (JPM): ~$5.01 (Whispers are higher, closer to $5.10)
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Watch credit card delinquencies.
We know the affluent consumer is fine (wealth effect from stocks/housing). We need to know how badly the lower end consumer is hurting. Watch for loan loss provisions and commentary about spending. For the market more broadly, there could also be some talk about M&A, which would also be a positive economic and market signal.
JPM CEO Jamie Dimon is typically candid but he’s been hit-or-miss on macro signals so take his views with that in mind.
Airlines:
At the top end of the K-shaped economy, watch for Delta Airlines earnings on Tuesday morning. The consensus is $1.63. Travel is a good barometer of economic confidence but what we’re likely seeing in airlines is high end consumer traveling more, including in premium seats and middle income consumers getting squeezed. That’s been working ok for airlines and I think they’re a good investment but if those economy seats don’t fill, that could change.
Another signal worth watching is commentary on business travel, which has slowly been coming back post-covid but still isn’t all the way there.
Chipmakers:
TSMC on Thursday morning is arguably the big one for the week. They make Nvidia’s chips and have great visibility into the order book. With valuations very high, any sign of weakness whatsoever could spread broadly in tech.
TSMC is the bellwether. If they guide for continued acceleration in “High Performance Computing” (HPC), the AI bull run gets a green light for 2026. Any hesitation here will drag down the entire Nasdaq (NVDA, AMD).
Freight:
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) reports Thursday after the close.
Manufacturing and freight have been in a brutal recession and signs of a bottom are hard to find but some freight names bounced from the lows in Q4, so there is optimism headed into the new year
