March 11, 2025 at 12:17PM
The USD is mixed to start the North American session. The EURUSD is the biggest mover with a gain (lower USD) of 0.59%.
The GBPUSD is also higher (lower USD) by 0.44%).
The USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are all within 0.11% of the close from yesterday with the USD higher vs the CHF, but lower (marginally) vs the AUD and NZD.
The USDCAD is lower by -0.21% and the
USDJPY is higher by 0.29%.
The US stock market futures are implying a higher open for the major indices after yesterday’s plunge that saw the Nasdaq fall -4.0% and the S&P fall -2.7% on US recession fears. The S&P closed below its 200-day MA for the first time since November 2023.
The WSJ is reporting that consumers may be tapped out after pulling the economy along. American Airlines cut its guidance for Q1 to -$60–$80 from -$0.20 to -$0.40 previoiusly and sees revenues around flat (from +3% to +5%). United Airlines (UAL) CEO stated that near-term economic pressures are likely to accelerate the removal of unprofitable capacity. The company has observed weakness in demand, and as a result, the CEO now expects performance to be at the lower end of the forecast range.
Is the travel boom peaking?
Overnight, the NFIB Business Optimism index fell -2.1 points to 100.7, marking the 4th consecutive month above the 51 year average of 98
Current level is 4.4 points below the recent peak of 105.1 in December.
Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 104, the second-highest reading on record.
Geopolitically, reports are that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to compromise on key demands, including land claims, peacekeepers, and Ukraine’s neutrality, in any potential peace negotiations, according to Bloomberg citing Western security officials. If these demands are not met, Putin is reportedly prepared to continue military action to achieve his objectives. Meanwhile, reports their Ukraine will propose partial cease-fire talks with US including a partial cease-fire on long range airstrikes and attacks at sea. Yesterday, it was reported that Ukraine’s Zelenskyy sent Pres. Trump an apology letter.
On the economic calendar today, the January JOLTS report is expected to show job openings rising to 7.65 million from 7.6 million in December, which had marked the largest drop in 14 months. The ratio of job openings per unemployed person declined to 1.1 from 1.5 in November, signaling a cooling labor market. Meanwhile, February saw an increase in job growth, though unemployment edged higher, with trade policy and federal workforce cuts adding uncertainty.
Yields are modestly higher after falling sharply yesterday on US recession fears:. The 10 year yield yesterday fell -8.7 basis points. The two year yield was down -11.5 basis points. The US treasury will auction off 3 year notes at 1 PM ET today. A snapshot market currently shows:
2-year at 3.916%, +2.4 basis points
5-year at 4.003%, +2.9 basis points
10-year at 4.241%, +2.9 basis points
30-year at 4.557%, +1 point basis points
US stocks are rebounding higher after yesterday’s sharp declines :
Dow + 163 points after falling minus 890.01 points or -2.08% yesterday
S&P +78 points after tumbling -155.64 points or -2.7% yesterday
Nasdaq +101 points after yesterday’s -727.904-4.0% decline
European stock indices are also mostly lower after yesterday’s sharp falls. The German DAX is trading above or below unchanged:
France’s CAC, -0.46%
German DAX, unchanged
UK’s FTSE 100 -0.47%
Spain’s Ibex -0.70%
Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.35%
In other markets:
Crude oil is trading up $0.82 or 1.24% at $66.85
Gold is up $24.97 or 0.87% at $2913.30
Silver is up $0.48 or 1.49% at $32.52
Biitcoin is up $3092 and $81,653 after trading as low as $76,600. It lowest level since November 10, 2024
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
