It’s been a nice week for the S&P 500 as the market rallied by more than 7% on more de-escalation news. The underlying expectations continue to point towards further de-escalation and eventually deals, which is a positive for growth and therefore the stock market.
We will likely remain in a “buy the dip” environment until the first deal or at least more concrete details for the first deal. The market’s expectations will be based on that first deal. If the details will be good and the reciprocal tariff rate is around 10% or lower, the market will likely take it as positive and we should continue towards all-time highs.
Conversely, if things look bad and the average tariff rate is above 10%, we could see a disappointment and get back to pricing slower growth which should weigh on the stock market.
On the daily chart, we can see that the price pulled all the way back to the key trendline around the 5550 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop back into the 4800 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 5800 level next.
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the 5479 level first and, upon a further break to the downside, the 5357 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will look to buy the dip at those levels
