Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability even further.
The Bank setting its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), this used to a big deal, very highly anticipated, but not any more. China’s main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses reverse repo open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.
The LPR setting in January left the 5 year at 3.50% (vs. expected 3.50% and prior 3.5%) and the 1 year at 3.00% (vs. exp. 3.0% and prior 3.0%). With no change expected for either again today, this will mark the ninth consecutive month without a change.
A look back at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022:
First trading day for China today of the Fire Horse year
