The markets are treading water as the North American session gets underway, with little conviction across the major asset classes ahead of key economic releases. Oil prices are marginally higher—up about $0.25—but the move lacks momentum, reflecting a market still balancing geopolitical uncertainty and most importantly, the opening or not of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the rates market, the yield curve is showing a modest steepening bias, with short-end yields inching lower while longer-dated yields drift slightly higher. That dynamic suggests a market that is not yet ready to fully commit to a policy path, instead waiting for clearer signals from incoming data.
Equities are similarly subdued. The major US indices are hovering near unchanged levels, caught between competing forces of resilient economic data and lingering uncertainty around inflation and central bank policy. There is no strong directional push, reinforcing the idea that traders are in a holding pattern as they await the next catalyst.
In the foreign exchange market, the USD is mixed. The greenback is firmer against the JPY, supported in part by the uptick in longer-term yields, while slipping modestly against the EUR and GBP. However, the moves are relatively contained, underscoring the broader theme of consolidation and indecision across markets.
In the video above, I walk through the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. The focus remains on identifying the bias, defining the key risk levels traders are leaning against, and outlining the upside and downside targets that will shape the next directional move. As always, those technical levels serve as the barometer for buyers and sellers—levels where risk can be defined and where momentum either builds or fades.
Looking ahead, the calendar is front-loaded with important data that could provide that needed catalyst. At 8:30 AM ET, the US CPI report takes center stage. Expectations are for a 0.9% rise in the headline month-over-month figure, a notable jump from the 0.3% increase last month, while core CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected at 3.3%, with core at 2.7%. Any deviation from those expectations—especially on the core side—could quickly shift rate expectations and, in turn, drive moves in yields, equities, and the USD.
At the same time, Canada releases its March employment report. Job growth is expected to rebound modestly with a gain of 15.0K following last month’s sharp decline of 83.9K. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 6.8% from 6.7%. Traders will also be watching the composition of employment after last month’s notable drop in full-time jobs (-108.4K) contrasted with a rise in part-time positions (+24.5K), a mix that raised some concerns about underlying labor market strength.
Later in the morning, at 10:00 AM ET, US factory orders for February are expected to decline by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in January. With preliminary durable goods orders already showing a -1.4% drop, the revision and the broader factory orders data will provide additional insight into the health of the manufacturing sector.
Bottom line: Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, with price action subdued across assets
