This is one of the most-confused and confusing periods in markets that I can ever remember.
The leaks out of war are coming from at least four separate directions:
- The US
- Iran
- Israel
- Pakistan
None of it is credible, not even close. It’s like there’s a battle within the war to send out the most disinformation and spin things to the most-ridiculous extent. There is obviously an active campaign to keep markets in check but that runs counter to the obvious problem that 12-14 million barrels of oil are being blocked. At some point, the physical reality takes over and oil market; oil market analysts are screaming from the rooftops about shortages.
I think the main hope is that Trump is bored with the war, or knows it’s basically unwinnable if the aim is to open the Strait by force. From some reports (any everything is questionable), the US has essentially dropped zero enrichment, may have given up on getting the enriched uranium directly (hence the trip to Russia), is willing to offer unfrozen funds, and is kicking missiles and proxies down the road. If that’s the case, a deal could be within reach.
In contrast, Iran could think it’s building leverage and can keep the strait closed until it gets all those things (or more). That could be a grave miscalculation and the US could escalate to get a peace on its terms.
Today, Trump will reportedly meet his cabinet in the situation room and that is seemingly pivotal.
Now I would have thought with all these risks, we would see some risk aversion. Instead, stock futures are barely lower, bonds are essentially flat and WTI crude is up $1.45 to $95.84. Now I can at least see it from the technology side, which is all about AI and ignoring the war
