June 12, 2024 at 06:38PM
Dot plot leaned narrowly towards three rate cuts (two expected today)
Median at 3.1% for end-2025
2024 GDP growth median +1.2%
2025 GDP +1.9%
Unemployment rate 4.6% in 2024 and 2025 (currently at 4.0%)
2024 PCE inflation 2.5%
2025 PCE inflation 2.1%
2024 core PCE 2.6%
2025 core PCE 2.1%
I don’t see big changes here but I’d expect upside risks to 2024 GDP and downside risks to 2024 unemployment. I could see inflation this year ticking up but the 2025 numbers should stay low.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.