The Canadian dollar hangs in the balance as we count down to the July BOC decision

July 09, 2024 at 08:53PM
There are two probabilities that matter in Canada right now:

1) A 64% chance the Bank of Canada cuts rates on July 24

The market has tilted towards a cut in the past two weeks. Despite that, the Canadian dollar has strengthened and I think that’s instructive. The market is increasingly saying that the growth side of the equation is most-important right now and if the BOC cuts more now to get ahead of the curve, they ultimately won’t have to cut as deeply next year or in 2026. That’s the dynamic I’ll be watching through the decision, though the USD side of the equation is also in play.

In terms of the calendar, there are no speeches from the BOC scheduled before the meeting while the key data will be the July 16 CPI report and the July 19 retail sales report. I’m also keeping a close eye on the real estate market, which is struggling.

I suspect some of the resilience in CAD is due to a four-week rally in oil prices. Unfortunately, that streak is likely to end after two days of selling to start the week.

2) Messi? Never heard of him

Canada plays Argentina in the semi-finals of the Copa America tonight and the implied odds of Canada advancing are about 18%, which sounds rich. Even richer is a rapper betting $300,000 on Canada winning it in normal time.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

For News Subscribe Us!

If you wish to receive the weekly market report, please subscribe. For a daily report please go to contact form to speak to the sales team.

You have been successfully Subscribed! Ops! Something went wrong, please try again.
PikPng.com_apple-icon-png_BBB

register your interest now

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFX
Business Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United Kingdom

HUBFX Asia  Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFX
Business Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United Kingdom

HUBFX Asia  Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for HUBFX are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of an electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701).  For clients based in the United States, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorised in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000206794359). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011. For clients based in the United Kingdom and rest of the world, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199). Please refer to the Terms of Use here.

Payment services for HUBFX UK and US are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 

 

Payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 and CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of a electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701)

Rates are indicative only. Please log in for getting your rates.