Strong turnaround in interest rates expectations following Trump’s tariffs pause

April 10, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 83 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
ECB: 70 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
BoE: 71 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
BoC: 76 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 115 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
RBNZ: 75 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 18 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 13 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

As Trump announced the pause in tariffs and a 10% baseline rate for all countries except China, traders rushed to revise their interest rates expectations. The stock market had its best day since 2008. We’ve set lots of records in just a week

Strong turnaround in interest rates expectations following Trump’s tariffs pause

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