It’s not just the US-Iran conflict, major central bank decisions, and key US tech earnings that will be in the picture this week. Just be mindful that month-end shenanigans are also something to consider in the days ahead. Yes, we’re already at the end of another crazy month in markets.
And according to Credit Agricole, their month-end fixing model points to strong dollar selling after weighing in all the usual drivers.
“Global equity markets were broadly firmer in April. In FX, the USD was broadly weaker on the month.
Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be strong USD selling across the board, with the strongest sell signal in the case of the USD vs EUR.”
Their argument points to EUR/USD making strides higher, all else being equal. The pair is seeing a bit of a mixed start this week, bouncing higher yesterday after finding support from its 200-day moving average last week. However, near-term gains are more limited closer to the 200-hour moving average – seen at 1.1742 currently. That before any potential talk of revisiting the 1.1800 level.
Just be wary that these month-end fixing calls are not the be all, end all in deciding price movements. In a time like this, headline risks remain paramount and the biggest driver of price action
