Headlines surrounding a possible agreement to end the war continue to face pushback from non-U.S. participants involved in the discussions. Pakistani sources said the two sides are moving closer to establishing a formal negotiation framework that could lead to talks lasting several months. According to those reports, a draft agreement is already in place, with most clauses reportedly accepted by both parties. The framework is said to include a timetable for ending hostilities and a path toward a complete end to the conflict.
However, Iranian officials are publicly challenging the optimism surrounding the reports. An adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader dismissed the proposed text as “an American wish,” arguing that the United States will not achieve through war what it failed to gain during direct negotiations. The adviser added that Iran remains prepared to respond militarily if the U.S. does not make what Tehran views as necessary concessions, warning that Iran still has its “finger on the trigger.” Iran said it will review the U.S. proposal and communicate its response through Pakistan.
Meanwhile, President Trump attempted to temper expectations, saying it is still too early to begin discussing face-to-face peace talks between the United States and Iran, despite growing speculation that the 67-day conflict could be moving toward a resolution.
ooking at the market, the premarket gains in the stock market have get back
- NASDAQ is currently up 312 points. At the start of the North American session, the price was up about 420 points
- S&P is up 55 points versus 65 points earlier in the North American session
- Dow industrial average is up 460 points. The Dow has kept their gains.
Crude oil remains highly volatile, with prices currently trading at $94.54 after reaching a session high of $102.70 and a low of $88.66. Despite the sharp intraday swings, the price is still down roughly -7.5% on the day. Technically, the hourly chart shows that the rally attempt stalled near the 200-hour moving average (green line), keeping the broader bearish bias in place. The subsequent selloff pushed the price below the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels of the rally from the April low before buyers stepped back in. Since then, crude has rebounded above both the 61.8% retracement and the 50% midpoint level near $94.95. For sellers to regain stronger control, they would need to push the price back below that 50% level. Absent that move, the risk remains for a corrective rebound toward $98.72 and potentially back toward the psychologically important $100 level — a development that would disappoint those hoping for a sustained decline in energy prices.
US yields are maintaining their 6 or so basis point decline. The 2-year yield is at 3.873% -6.4 basis points while the 10 year his at 4.353% -6.2. The 10 year yield reached a low of 4.334%. The 2-year yield reached a low today of 3.839%. The good news is the 10 year yield is down from 4.462% reached on May 4
