Fundamental
Overview
The uncertainty about a
December cut has been putting a lid on further stock market gains. The
probability for a December cut is now a bit below 50%. It’s still basically a
50/50 chance, but we will likely need soft labour market or inflation data to get
the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting.
In fact, there’s a strong
debate within the FOMC whether a December cut is warranted at this point. The
data will have the final say, and the decision-maker will likely be the November
NFP expected to be released in the first week of December just a few days before
the FOMC meeting.
Strong data is likely to
weigh on the market on a further hawkish repricing, while soft data should give
the market a boost as rate cut hopes would increase.
S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On
the daily chart, we can see that
the S&P 500 bounced once again around the major trendline. If we get another drop, we can expect the dip-buyers to step in there
again with a defined risk below the low to position for a rally into new all-time
highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to increase the bearish bets into the 6,541 level next.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On
the 4 hour chart, there’s not much
we can glean from this timeframe as we don’t have clear levels where to lean
onto other than the above mentioned major trendline, so we need to zoom in to
see some more details.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 6,745 level. If the price pulls
back into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in there with a defined
risk below the support to position for a rally into the 6,900 level next. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into the major trendline targeting a breakout. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC
meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the September NFP report and maybe the US
Jobless Claims data
