Singapore NODX rose 15.3% y/y in March, beating forecasts, as AI-driven electronics exports surged, though non-electronics remained weak and MAS warned of downside risks from global conditions.
Summary:
- Singapore NODX +15.3% y/y in March vs +9.4% expected (Reuters poll)
- Electronics exports surge +74% y/y, driven by AI demand
- Non-electronics still weak (-0.6% y/y), highlighting uneven recovery
- Export growth broadening across Asia, softer to US and EU
- MAS flags downside risks from energy shock and tighter global conditions
Singapore’s export sector delivered a strong upside surprise in March, driven by a surge in electronics shipments linked to artificial intelligence demand, although underlying momentum remains uneven across sectors and regions.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 15.3% year-on-year, well above the 9.4% increase expected in a Reuters poll and accelerating sharply from February’s 4% gain. The data marks a seventh consecutive month of expansion, reinforcing the resilience of Singapore’s externally driven economy despite rising global uncertainty.
The strength was heavily concentrated in electronics, where exports jumped 74% y/y, supported by robust AI-related demand and favourable base effects. Key contributors included integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk media products, underscoring Singapore’s position within the global semiconductor and tech supply chain.
However, the broader picture remains more mixed. Non-electronic exports declined 0.6% y/y, extending a run of weakness, though the pace of contraction moderated from February’s 6.9% drop. This divergence highlights a two-speed export profile, with tech-linked sectors outperforming while more traditional industries lag.
Regionally, export gains were concentrated within Asia, with shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China rising, while exports to the United States, European Union, and Indonesia declined compared to a year earlier. This suggests that demand linked to regional supply chains — particularly in electronics — remains stronger than in Western markets.
For policymakers, the data comes shortly after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and currency pressures. However, MAS has also flagged growing downside risks, warning that a prolonged energy shock could tighten global financial conditions and weigh on demand, including through potential negative spillovers to the AI-driven cycle.
While Singapore has upgraded its 2026 export growth forecast to 2–4%, the outlook remains contingent on global conditions. The March data reinforces near-term strength, but also highlights vulnerability to external shocks and the narrow base of the current export upswing.
Highlights strength in the global AI and semiconductor cycle, supporting tech-linked assets
