FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Silver pulled all the way
back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff
uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept
the market supported.
Nonetheless, the bullish
momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already
waned given no changes to the big picture.
In fact, Trump has already
imposed new tariffs under a different law, and the tariff deals remain in
place. The new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so at
the margin it could be a positive.
The market might remain
supported in the short-term amid some uncertainty, but I don’t see material
changes to justify a rally back to all-time highs, at the moment. The real
risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could take silver prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have
a negative effect on the market.
Fed’s Waller mentioned that
he would change his dovish stance in case the strong January’s jobs data is
repeated in February, so next week’s NFP report is going to be a key risk event
for silver.
GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that silver pulled all the way back to the key swing level at 92.15. This
is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
level to position for a drop into the major trendline around the 60.00 handle.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into a new record high next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price is rejecting a minor upward trendline as the buyers are stepping
in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a break above the
92.15 level. The sellers will look for a break below the trendline to extend
the drop into the 80.00 support next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see a minor support zone around the 85.00 level. If the price were to break
below the trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support
with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. A break
above the minor downward trendline should see the buyers increasing their
bullish bets. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report
