Copper and everything related to it is rallying once again today. That 12% premium has come up from just 3% at the start of the year, but it’s still well below the three-year average of 19%. So the market is pricing in some optimism, but nothing crazy.
The names Scotiabank likes on a relative value basis are First Quantum (FM) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) — both look meaningfully undervalued versus peers. On the other side, Antofagasta (ANTO) and Southern Copper (SCCO) look stretched, and Scotiabank rates both Sector Underperform.
What’s interesting is the disconnect between spot valuations and Scotiabank’s own price deck. At spot, the large/mid-cap copper producers trade at 8.4x 2026 EV/EBITDA and a 1.22x P/NAV — both reasonable. But plug in Scotiabank’s lower commodity assumptions and those numbers balloon to 9.9x and 1.99x respectively. That tells you the market is broadly pricing in copper staying elevated.
Scotiabank’s price deck vs. spot:
The gap between spot and the price deck is massive in gold and silver especially. Gold at $5,099 spot versus a $4,600 deck for 2026 and a $3,400 long-term assumption — that’s a big bet that the current rally fades. Silver is even more dramatic: $84.40 spot versus $65 next year and $40 long-term. Copper is more modest — $5.78 spot vs $5.50 for 2026 — but they’re still looking for a grind lower to $4.50 long-term.
The broader point about volatility is worth flagging too. Mining equities are swinging 5% a day right now, driven partly by AI/data centre sentiment bleeding into the commodities space
