Recapping data earlier – New Zealand labour market data reinforces rate cut expectations

August 6, 2025
-FXnews

expected 5.3%)

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.2%, up from 5.1% in Q1, while employment fell 0.1%.

The labour force participation rate declined to 70.5%, its lowest level since early 2021.

The jobless figure matched the RBNZ’s own projections and came in just below the 5.3% consensus forecast.

While wage growth picked up modestly in Q2—private sector wages rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter—overall signals point to a cooling labour market and increased likelihood of further monetary easing.

Market pricing shows a circa 88% chance of an August rate cut. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in the 20th.

Via Reuters:

ASB Bank’s Mark Smith noted that with inflation tracking within the central bank’s 1–3% target range, further easing would be appropriate to support both the labour market and broader economy.
Meanwhile, ANZ’s Miles Workman warned the data highlights excess capacity in the economy, suggesting the RBNZ may start focusing more on downside inflation risks going forward.

NZD/USD rose a little after the data

Recapping data earlier – New Zealand labour market data reinforces rate cut expectations

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