RBC expects the Bank of Canada’s next move to hinge on how much further the Canadian economy softens, with a notable Q2 slowdown in GDP growth and rising unemployment in the forecast.
“We think the path of the BoC will be largely determined by the extent of
further softening in the economy,” economist Claire Fan writes. “Both we and the central bank are expecting GDP growth will slow sharply
in Q2 while the unemployment rate continues to edge higher.”
Fan notes that hard data has been mixed but it’s skeweed because of tariff front-running.
“Our own tracking of RBC card data pointed
to a solid increase in April spendingRBC on the BOC decision: What comes next will depend on data but we see a weak H2
