RBA December minutes: Upside inflation risks had diminished

December 24, 2024 at 12:30AM
I posted a recap of this meeting as a bit of a preview of this. Its here:

RBA’s (slightly) softened tone

Headlines via Reuters:

Policy needed to be “sufficiently restrictive” until confident on inflation.

The board had minimal tolerance for inflation remaining above target for too long.

The board had gained confidence on inflation since the prior meeting, but risks remained.

Future data in line or weaker than forecast would give more confidence on inflation.

It would then be appropriate to begin relaxing the degree of policy tightness.

If data proved stronger, it could mean a longer period before easing.

The board saw signs policy was not as restrictive as the level of the cash rate would suggest.

The labor market was resilient, and service inflation was more persistent.

Wages had slowed more than expected, which could mean the labor market was not as tight as thought.

Monthly CPI suggested modest downside risk to Q4 inflation forecasts.

Upside inflation risks had diminished, and downside risks to activity had grown.

The board noted more data and updated forecasts would be available by the February meeting.

It was not possible to judge the impact on Australia of Trump policies until more is known.

AUD/USD little changed around 0.6240 (despite my rant earlier )

Full text here

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.