Opec+ will raise output by 188,000 bpd in June, but the move is largely symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed following the US-Israel attack on Iran in late February. The United Arab Emirates is not part of the calculation, having formally left Opec on May 1 after years of friction over Saudi-backed production curbs that limited the country’s ability to monetise its own reserves.
The production increase means little in practical terms while the strategic Hormuz waterway remains blocked. The strait has been effectively closed since the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February, severing the main route for crude exports from the Persian Gulf. Even if a ceasefire takes hold, analysts caution that rebuilding damaged infrastructure and restoring full export capacity will take considerable time.
Diplomatic activity has picked up. Iran submitted a fresh peace proposal that briefly weighed on oil prices late last week. President Trump downplayed its prospects on Saturday, and Iranian officials were still reviewing the US response. Pakistani officials have been working to get both sides back to the negotiating table, though no breakthrough has been confirmed.
The situation in the strait itself remains fragile. A cargo vessel was reportedly attacked there on Sunday, a reminder of how volatile the waterway remains even as the broader ceasefire appeared to be holding.
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A 188,000 bpd increase from Opec+ does little to ease global supply tightness while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Regional infrastructure damage and the UAE’s departure from the bloc add further uncertainty
