The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% at its upcoming policy meeting in the new trading day.
A Reuters poll conducted between August 11–14 found 28 of 30 economists anticipating the move, with only two expecting no change. The central bank last held rates at 3.25% in July, signaling a readiness to ease if inflation remained subdued. With annual inflation slowing to 2.7% in the June quarter — within the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range — and unemployment climbing to 5.2%, the highest since late 2020, the case for further policy support has strengthened.
Economists generally view the cut as part of the final phase of the RBNZ’s easing cycle (or near it). The median forecast points to an additional cut to 2.75% in Q1 2026, slightly earlier than previously projected in July.
So far, the central bank has cut the rate from 5.5% to the current 3.25%.
With the market expecting a cut, much will revolve around the RBNZ tone and forward guidance. If the RBNZ signals that this might be the stall point, we could see a rebound to the upside.
Conversely, if the door remains open due to concerns about tariffs and higher unemployment/lower inflation, the price has room to roam.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair has largely traded between 0.5845 and 0.6087 (see red box) since April. In recent weeks, however, the technical picture has turned more negative. Apart from a few brief spikes higher last week that temporarily pushed the price above the falling 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, the pair has remained capped by that level, reinforcing it as a strong technical ceiling.
The downside bias has been reinforced by the price holding below both the 100-day moving average and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart this week. Sellers remain in control as long as the pair stays below these levels.
On the downside, the next support zone comes in at 0.5877–0.5882
