The NZDUSD climbed higher last week, with momentum peaking in the aftermath of the FOMC rate decision. That rally carried the pair above a key target at 0.5997, which marked not only the swing high from August 13 but also the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the July 1 high down to the August low. Sellers defended that level firmly, and the failure there set the stage for a reversal.
The decline that followed was notable, as the pair slipped back below a series of important technical markers. First, it dropped under the 100-day moving average at 0.5959, then broke through the cluster of the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart near 0.5907, and eventually moved beneath the 200-day moving average, now at 0.58577. That cascade of breaks erased much of the FOMC-inspired rally and shifted the near-term focus back to the downside.
In this week’s trading, however, the pair has struggled to establish clear direction. Price action has oscillated both above and below the 200-day moving average, signaling indecision and a market taking a breather before the next momentum push. At present, NZDUSD trades just under that level at 0.5854, keeping sellers marginally in control.
Looking lower, the next key focus comes in at the swing area around 0.58455. A sustained move below would bring into play progressively lower swing lows established over the past several weeks — 0.5830, 0.5812, and 0.57989. A break through that sequence would tilt the bias more decisively bearish and open the door to deeper downside targets.
On the flip side, regaining traction above the 200-day moving average at 0.58577 would allow buyers to press for more. The first upside checkpoint would be 0.5882, followed by a move into the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart between 0.5905 and 0.59106. A break there would go a long way in restoring bullish momentum and re-targeting the August highs.
For now, the pair sits at a crossroads, with the 200-day moving average acting as the immediate pivot point
