The softer NFP and CPI data have reinforced their conviction that the Fed is back on the path to cutting, with a 25bp move in September still their base case. The stronger July PPI was only a temporary hiccup and isn’t seen as a game-changer.
Positioning doesn’t look crowded, which means there’s still room for the dollar to fall if Powell leans dovish at Jackson Hole or if incoming data stay on the weaker side
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