Today is all about AI capex.
This is the range to watch: $435–475 billion.
That’s estimate capex for this year alone from Microsoft, Meta and Google, who all report after the bell. It’s an astounding number that I want to put into perspective.
because even people in markets have no idea how big the AI capex boom is.
- It’s larger than the combined annual military spending of China and Russia.
- That’s more than the entire government of Canada budget this year and approaches Germany’s government budget.
- It’s double the entire four-year Marshall Plan (inflation adjusted).
- It’s nearly equivalent to the 35-year build out of the interstate highway system (inflation adjusted)
- It’s slightly larger than entire global upstream oil capex budget.
- It’s larger than the combined annual military spending of China and Russia.
- It’s double than global pharma R&D spending.
- It’s 3.5x global mining industry capex.
Today we got a taste of the spending in the durable goods orders report:
That doesn’t even include Amazon, OpenAI and the others also spending massively on AI capex.
Details and what’s expected today:
Alphabet — Watch for any revision to the $175–$185B 2026 capex range — that’s nearly double the $91.4B spent in 2025 (those numbers are breathtaking). Options pricing about a 5.6% move in the stock on earnings.
Microsoft — Microsoft doesn’t guide on capex for the year but capex is estimated at $35.2B for the quarter and look for indications about about it “growing” or “stabilizing” or anything along those lines. Management said H2 spend would be larger than H1. Indications on multi-year spending will be notable as well.
Meta — The guide on 2026 capex is $115–135B, up from $69.7B in 2025, with total expenses guided to $162–169B
