JP Morgan has cut its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 but maintained its year-end target of around $6,000 as demand is expected to re-accelerate in the second half.
Summary:
- JP Morgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from a prior estimate of $5,708 per ounce, while maintaining its base case target of around $6,000 per ounce by year-end, citing an expected re-acceleration in demand in the second half of 2026, according to the bank.
JP Morgan has revised its 2026 average gold price forecast downward while leaving its year-end target intact, signalling that the bank views the first half of the year as a period of underperformance relative to its broader bullish thesis rather than evidence that the multi-year rally is losing structural support.
The bank trimmed its full-year average price estimate to $5,243 per ounce from a previous forecast of $5,708, a reduction that reflects softer price realisation in the opening months of 2026. However, JP Morgan maintained its base case target of around $6,000 per ounce by year-end, a level that would represent a substantial move higher from current levels and one the bank attributes to an anticipated re-acceleration in demand through the second half of the year.
The disconnect between the lowered average and the unchanged peak target is significant. It implies JP Morgan expects the pace of gold’s appreciation to increase materially as the year progresses, driven by a demand pickup that has not yet fully materialised. Central bank buying, which has been a cornerstone of gold’s structural bull case in recent years, alongside safe-haven flows tied to geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing energy shock from the Iran war, are among the factors likely underpinning the bank’s confidence in the second-half outlook.
Gold has proven sensitive to shifts in real yields and dollar strength, both of which remain unsettled in the current environment. With US Treasury yields extending their rise and the dollar retaining its relative yield advantage, the near-term path for gold is not without headwinds. JP Morgan’s revised forecast acknowledges that reality while stopping well short of abandoning the bullish conviction that has defined the bank’s gold call through the current cycle.
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The revision lower in JP Morgan’s full-year average forecast reflects softer first-half price realisation, but the maintained $6,000 year-end target implies a sharp acceleration in the second half, a trajectory that would require a significant re-engagement from institutional and central bank buyers. The gap between the trimmed average and the unchanged peak target suggests JP Morgan sees current levels as a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal
