The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, but with a hawkish tilt. That stance reflects lingering uncertainty in the data — uncertainty that should begin to resolve next week as key reports on inflation and employment finally catch up after the government shutdown delays.
Today’s release will also include updated central tendency projections from Fed officials for the Fed Funds rate, GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation. In September, policymakers projected:
-
Fed Funds rate: 3.4% (today’s projection expected closer to 3.75%)
-
GDP: 1.8%
-
Unemployment: 4.4%
-
PCE inflation: 2.6%
-
Core PCE inflation: 2.6%
Chair Powell’s press conference will follow at 2:30 PM ET and typically runs 50–60 minutes, providing additional clarity on how the Fed is thinking about the balance of risks and the path ahead.
In the video above, I walk through the key technical levels for three major FX pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — to help set up the trading day.
What else for today?
The Bank of Canada will announce their rate decision. The expectation is for the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%. What traders will be focused on is the tone from the central bank after stronger jobs data over the last few months
