February 13, 2025 at 04:53PM
At the start of Trump 1.0 in January 2017, the EURUSD was trading around 1.0400 to 1.0500. The EURUSD is trading around that same area to start the Trump 2.0 term.
If you look back to 2017, the EURUSD nearly trading up to 1.2100 by the end of the first year of his Presidency The sharp rise in the EURUSD (lower dollar) came despite tariff wars.
In the US stock market in 2017, the S&P index rose just short of 20%. The NASDAQ index was up some 28%.
We just had two inflation numbers come out in the US, and they both were disappointing, but after rising 8 base points yesterday, the 10-year yield is down around 9 basis points today. No harm. No foul. The 10 year yield remains below the high for the year at 4.809% with the current yield around 4.54%
In trading yesterday, the EURUSD moved lower off the higher inflation readings both yesterday and today, but then snapped back higher. We are now trading at new session highs for the day just like we did yesterday.
Is the bid under the market, and the price action in the debt and stock markets mirroring Trump 1.0?
The clues will be shown on the shorter-term chart first. Failing on moves lower and extending higher and higher can build on itself. Next thing you know, the market trends. I think the Trump administration would not be opposed to a lower dollar to help spur on export growth.
Technically, what we do knowis that the 100-day moving average for the EURUSD is up near 1.0600. The 200-day moving average is at 1.07492 (in 2017 it was in the 1.0800 area). The price of the EURSD at 1.0425 is still a ways away from those levels, but do we head toward them? Does Trump 2.0 start to mirror Trump 1.0 in the big picture?
I will discuss that idea in this video and outline a progression technically for that to happen.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
