The U.S. dollar has been under pressure for a while now. For starters, the country’s fiscal situation just keeps getting worse — national debt has shot past $39 trillion, even though the original plan was to bring it down. So far, strong demand for U.S. Treasuries has kept things from spiraling, but investors are already asking for higher yields, judging by the fact that yields haven’t dropped, even after the Fed cut interest rates several times.
On top of that, the geopolitical shifts aren’t exactly helping the dollar index. First, Russia moved much of its energy trade into yuan and built up reserves in both yuan and gold. Now, there is a worry that the Middle East could follow a similar path — using the Chinese currency to push back against U.S. influence. Some even suggest this could spell the end of the so-called petrodollar system*, which has been in place since 1974.
Back then, Saudi Arabia agreed to sell oil in U.S. dollars and reinvest extra revenue into U.S. Treasury bonds in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. Today, some argue that, amid rising instability in the region, countries could start trading more in yuan and gradually reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings to support their own currencies, especially if the dollar keeps strengthening and their reserves dwindle.
So, is this the end of the dollar?
Eventually, but it is unlikely to happen anytime soon because there is no real alternative yet. The problem with what some see as a replacement, the yuan, is that it isn’t freely convertible. On the mainland, its exchange rate is tightly controlled by China’s central bank, with daily fluctuations limited to around ±2 percent. Even offshore, it is not fully market-driven, and Beijing can still intervene through state banks whenever it wants.
This lack of a true alternative is also reflected in currency markets. The USD/JPY remains one of the clearest expressions of global dollar demand, as investors continue to favor U.S. assets over low-yielding alternatives like Japan. Despite all the concerns surrounding U.S. debt and fiscal sustainability, capital still flows into the dollar, reinforcing its dominant role in the system.
In addition, there are capital controls: restrictions on inflows and outflows of yuan into and out of China, as well as limits on outflows of foreign currency from the country. All of this makes the yuan much less flexible for global trade than the dollar. Therefore, despite all the geopolitical changes, replacing the dollar is not something that can happen overnight. It is deeply entrenched in the global financial system.
Now, if trust in the dollar falters, U.S. Treasury bonds could come under heavy pressure. That might trigger credit downgrades and massive sell-offs. The Fed would likely step in, creating trillions of dollars to keep interest rates low. The problem is that without strong economic backing, the U.S. could get trapped in debt
