Iran is expected to deliver its response Thursday to a U.S. proposal for ending the war, with Trump citing “very good talks” and Pakistan actively mediating toward a permanent peace agreement.
Summary:
- Iran is expected to hand over its formal reply Thursday to Pakistani mediators regarding a U.S. proposal to end the war, according to a source cited in reporting on the talks
- President Trump said the U.S. has had very good talks with Iran over the past 24 hours and that a deal is possible, per his public remarks
- Axios reported the U.S. proposal takes the form of a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding covering a suspension of Iranian nuclear enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and restoring free transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issues
- Reuters separately confirmed the existence of the proposal via two sources briefed on the mediation, though the memo has not been publicly outlined, per Reuters reporting
- Iran’s foreign ministry said the proposal was still being reviewed and that Tehran would inform Pakistan of its position once the review was complete, according to spokesman Ismail Baghaei via the Iranian Students’ News Agency
- A senior Iranian parliamentary figure dismissed the Axios-reported terms as a wish list, while Pakistan’s foreign minister said his country was working to convert the ceasefire into a permanent end to the war, per reporting on the talks
Iran is expected to deliver its formal response on Thursday to a U.S. proposal for ending the war, with Pakistan serving as the key mediating channel and President Donald Trump expressing optimism that a deal remains within reach.
The response, anticipated by Thursday, will be handed to Pakistani intermediaries who have been actively facilitating the back-channel negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan’s foreign minister has described his country’s role as one of trying to convert the existing ceasefire into a permanent resolution of the conflict, underscoring the ambition of the current diplomatic push.
Trump added momentum to the process by saying the two sides had held very good talks over the preceding 24 hours and that an agreement was possible. His comments followed an Axios report citing four sources briefed on the negotiations, which described a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that could form the basis of a framework for more detailed nuclear talks. Reuters subsequently confirmed the existence of the proposal through two separate sources, though neither government has publicly outlined the memo’s contents.
Among the provisions attributed to the memorandum are a suspension of Iranian nuclear enrichment, the removal of sanctions, and the restoration of free transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The last of these carries the most immediate significance for global energy markets. The waterway’s de facto closure since the outbreak of the conflict has been a primary driver of the crude oil price surge that has fed into inflationary pressures across multiple major economies in recent weeks.
Iran’s official response has so far been measured. The foreign ministry confirmed the proposal was still under review and said Tehran would communicate its position to Pakistani mediators once that process was complete. A senior member of Iran’s parliament was less diplomatic, characterising the reported terms as a wish list rather than a serious negotiating document.
The gap between Washington’s optimism and Tehran’s public caution is a familiar feature of diplomatic processes at this stage, and does not necessarily indicate a breakdown. The mechanics of Thursday’s handover to Pakistani mediators will be closely watched as the first concrete signal of whether Iran is prepared to engage substantively with the framework on offer.
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Oil markets face a binary event risk on Thursday, with a constructive Iranian response capable of triggering a sharp selloff in crude as the Strait of Hormuz reopening premium unwinds, while a rejection or delay would likely push prices higher and reinforce the inflationary shock narrative flagged by the Fed’s Goolsbee and the Bank of Canada’s Macklem earlier.
The 14-point memo’s reported inclusion of free Strait of Hormuz transit is the single most important provision for energy markets, given that the waterway’s de facto closure has been the primary driver of the crude price surge since the conflict began
