Summary:
-
Venezuelan oil exports to China set to drop sharply from February
-
Only three shipments passed the U.S. blockade since mid-December
-
China took 75% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2025
-
Large volumes still in transit, easing near-term supply stress
-
Chinese teapot refiners likely hardest hit
Posting this as an ICYMI.
Venezuelan oil exports to China are set to fall sharply from February after a U.S. blockade dramatically reduced the number of tankers able to leave the country, according to traders and analysts cited by Reuters.
China, Venezuela’s largest crude buyer, has seen shipments dwindle after Donald Trump imposed a blockade in December on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, part of Washington’s pressure campaign that culminated in a U.S. military incursion and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has since claimed U.S. control over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries founding member and encouraged U.S. firms to invest in its energy sector.
Since the blockade began, only three tankers carrying Venezuelan crude and fuel oil have continued toward Asia, with roughly 5 million barrels expected to reach China by late February. That equates to about 166,000 barrels per day, a steep drop from the 642,000 bpd Venezuela exported to China on average in 2025, when China accounted for roughly 75% of the country’s oil exports, according to internal PDVSA documents.
The decline follows U.S. seizures of Venezuela-linked vessels, prompting many shipowners to abandon or reverse voyages to avoid confiscation. While around a dozen tankers attempted to depart with transponders switched off in early January, most later returned after Caracas’ interim authorities negotiated a 50-million-barrel oil supply arrangement with Washington.
Despite the looming drop, Chinese refiners are not scrambling for replacement barrels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa show 43–52 million barrels of Venezuelan oil still en route to Asia, while China took a record 660,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude in November, leaving inventories well stocked.
Looking ahead, the biggest impact is likely to fall on China’s independent “teapot” refiners, which rely heavily on Venezuelan grades such as Merey. Traders say teapots may turn to alternatives like Canadian heavy crude in the second quarter as Venezuelan flows are redirected toward the U.S. or constrained by enforcement risks
