How have interest rates expectations changed after this week’s events?

September 26, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 39 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 101 bps

ECB: 2 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 9 bps

BoE: 6 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 36 bps

BoC: 20 bps (51% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 34 bps

RBA: 16 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 34 bps

RBNZ: 60 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut)

2026: 73 bps

SNB: 2 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 7 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 18 bps (55% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 57 bps

*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.

This week was relatively light on the data front but we got two key releases that influenced interest rates expectations. That showed that the labour market might not be as weak as people think. Moreover, at the same time of the jobless claims report, we got a slate of other US data and all of them beat expectations by a big margin. This triggered a hawkish repricing for the Fed with the expected easing by year-end falling to 39 bps vs 44 bps prior and 101 bps by the end of 2026 vs 113 bps prior

How have interest rates expectations changed after this week’s events?

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