How have interest rates expectations changed after this week’s events?

September 12, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 71 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut)

2026: 145 bps

ECB: 4 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 10 bps

BoE: 9 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 42 bps

BoC: 43 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 59 bps

RBA: 30 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 48 bps

RBNZ: 38 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 48 bps

SNB: 3 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 6 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 16 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 50 bps

*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.

The most notable moves this week happened on the US side of course as the dovish expectations for the Fed solidified after the soft PPI, the in-line CPI and the weak initial jobless claims.

We’ve also got a slightly more hawkish repricing for the ECB as President Lagarde yesterday confirmed that the cutting cycle was over and they would need strong reasons to cut further

How have interest rates expectations changed after this week’s events?

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